Is off-plan overpriced in Dubai? How to check a launch price against DLD sales

Most off-plan launches in Dubai are not priced above recent sales of similar homes, but about one in four are. We checked the from price of 988 off-plan projects against DLD off-plan sales in the 12 months to 9 November 2026: 401 were below the median price per sq ft of similar sales, 30 were in line and 235 were above. The other 322 had no clear result.

Below: how the check works, what each result means, what it can't see, and how to run it yourself with free Dubai Land Department (DLD) data.

This is general information, not financial or legal advice. A price check describes past sales; it doesn't tell you what a home will be worth at handover.

Is off-plan cheaper than ready property in Dubai?

No, not per square foot. In the 12 months to 30 September 2026, off-plan homes sold at a higher median price per sq ft than ready homes in 42 of the 43 DLD districts with at least 50 sales of each kind. That is our analysis of DLD sales of apartments and other units. The median gap was about 43%.

Many broker pages say off-plan is "15 to 30% cheaper". Registered sales don't support that per sq ft. An off-plan home can still cost less in total, because it may be smaller or further out. So compare an off-plan price with other off-plan sales, not ready ones. See off-plan vs ready property.

Should I compare a launch price with asking prices or sold prices?

Compare it with sold prices. Asking prices are what sellers advertise; sold prices are what the DLD registered. Bayut's H1 2026 off-plan report says its figures reflect advertised listing prices only (Bayut via Zawya, 2026). DLD data shows real sale prices.

An asking price can sit above what a home sells for, or stay on a listing after the units have sold. A launch price is the developer's list price. Every off-plan sale in Dubai is recorded in the DLD's interim register (Oqood), and the DLD publishes each one with its price, size, rooms and whether it was off-plan or ready (DLD Open Data). These off-plan sales may include both first sales by developers and resales of off-plan contracts; the published data doesn't separate them.

How do I check if an off-plan price is fair?

Work out the price per square foot and compare it with the median of similar off-plan sales from the last 12 months. Our site does this for every project with a from price and a size. On DLD sales to 9 November 2026, 666 of 988 projects got a clear result.

Why price per square foot. Two homes rarely have the same size. AED 2,000,000 for 800 sq ft is AED 2,500 per sq ft; AED 1,900,000 for 700 sq ft is about AED 2,714. The second is cheaper in total but dearer per sq ft. DLD gives sizes in square metres; multiply by 10.7639 to get sq ft.

Why the median. It is the middle sale when they are lined up from lowest to highest. One penthouse or one odd sale doesn't pull it the way it pulls an average.

What our check compares. Each project's from price at its smallest listed size. It is the one price listed for almost every project (all but 5 of the 988). Larger units' prices change as units sell and aren't always published.

What counts as a similar sale:

• Same type and bedrooms. Apartments with apartments, villas with villas, studios with studios, 1-beds with 1-beds.
• Similar size. Sales are grouped into size bands, each about 1.5 times as wide as the one below. A 755 sq ft home falls in the band of about 620 to 930 sq ft. When the project's own sales or its community's sales are too few, the bands either side are added.
• Off-plan only. Ready sales are left out.
• Closest place first. First the project's own DLD sales, then its master community, then the whole DLD area. The check uses the first group with at least 30 sales.
• Recent sales. The last 12 months. For a project's own sales, if 12 months gives fewer than 30, it uses 24 months.
• Odd sales removed. Sales far outside the normal spread of the group are dropped before the median is taken.

The current checks use DLD sales through 9 November 2026, so the 12-month window runs from 10 November 2025 to 9 November 2026.

What does a real price check look like?

Take a one-bedroom of 755 sq ft in an off-plan building in Dubai Creek Harbour, listed at AED 2,625 per sq ft in November 2026. In the 12 months to 9 November 2026, the DLD registered 189 off-plan sales of similar one-bedrooms in the same building. Their median was AED 2,720 per sq ft.

	AED per sq ft
Lowest sale	2,532
Middle half of the sales	2,663 to 2,788
Median	2,720
Highest sale	2,876
The from price	2,625

(2,625 minus 2,720) divided by 2,720 is minus 3.5%. So the check reads: 3.5% below 189 similar sales (12 months to 9 November 2026). The from price sits below the middle half of the sales, but above the lowest sale.

What do "below", "above" and "in line" mean?

"Below" means the from price per sq ft is under the median of similar DLD off-plan sales, "above" means over it, and "in line" means within 0.5% either way. The examples below use DLD sales through 9 November 2026, as checked by our site on 12 November 2026.

Result	What it means	Example
Below	The from price per sq ft is under the median of similar sales	A 1-bed of 755 sq ft in Dubai Creek Harbour: 3.5% below 189 similar sales in its own building (12 months)
Above	It is over the median	A 1-bed of 537 sq ft in Ras Al Khor: 12.2% above 120 similar sales in its own building (12 months)
In line	It is within 0.5% of the median	A studio of 359 sq ft in Dubai Science Park: in line with 185 similar sales in its own building (12 months)
Price far from sales	The from price per sq ft is far outside the normal range of similar sales, so a percentage wouldn't mean much. We don't quote one	A 1-bed of 638 sq ft in Dubai Creek Harbour, at AED 1,927 per sq ft against 1,163 similar sales in the area
Check the from price	The from price per sq ft is above every similar sale in the project itself, or more than 25% above their median. That can mean a wrong price or size in the listing, so we don't give a result	A 1-bed of 741 sq ft in Dubai Hills Estate, at AED 3,684 per sq ft, above all 10 similar sales in its own building in 24 months
Too few sales	Fewer than 30 similar sales in the project, community and area	A studio on Dubai Islands: no similar off-plan studio flat sales in 12 months

The words follow the result, not the size of the gap. A 0.6% gap is "0.6% above", not "in line".

How many off-plan launches are priced above recent sales?

235 of the 988 off-plan projects on our site, about one in four, had a from price per sq ft above the median of similar DLD off-plan sales. 401 were below and 30 in line. That is our check on DLD sales in the 12 or 24 months to 9 November 2026.

Result	Projects
Below similar sales	401
Above similar sales	235
In line	30
Price far from sales	57
Check the from price	56
Too few similar sales	160
Not checked (no from price or size, not a home, or no DLD area)	49
Total	988

Of the 666 projects with a below, above or in-line result, 274 were compared with their own project's sales, 181 with their master community and 211 with the whole DLD area. Projects with their own DLD sales get the closest comparison. A new launch usually has none yet, so it is compared with its community or area.

More projects come out below than above. Part of that may come from the method: the from price is the cheapest unit, while the median covers units on every floor and with every view. So "below" doesn't mean the unit you are offered is cheaper than similar homes.

What can a price check not tell you?

It can't see the floor, the view, the finish, the payment plan or the exact unit you are offered. It only compares the from price with past DLD sales of similar size and type. Industry estimates quoted by S&P put price falls at 5% to 15% between the end of 2025 and September 2026 (The National, 7 October 2026).

• View and floor. DLD sales don't record them. A high-floor sea-view unit and a low unit facing a car park can share a size band.
• Finish and brand. Branded homes sit in the same group as other homes in the area.
• Launch and later phases. A project's own sales mix launch prices, later releases and resales. A new launch may be compared with older launches priced in a different market.
• Timing. The window is 12 or 24 months, so when prices move, the median lags behind.
• The payment plan. A plan with more due at or after handover can carry a higher price; see payment plans explained.
• Your unit. Ask for its own price and size and work out its price per sq ft.
• The costs on top. The 4% DLD fee and admin fees are not in the DLD price; see the costs on top of the price.

Where can I see DLD sale prices myself?

On DLD Open Data, free. Open Transactions, choose Registration type "Off Plan", set the area and dates, and download a CSV with each sale's price, size and rooms. We checked the page on 14 November 2026 (DLD Open Data). A spreadsheet then gives you the median.

1. Get the unit's price and size in sq ft, and the project's DLD project number. Divide the price by the size.
2. Download recent sales. In Transactions, set the last 12 months, Transaction Type "Sales", Registration type "Off Plan", the Area, Usage "Residential" and Property Type "Unit".
3. Keep similar homes: the same project (or master project), the same rooms, and sizes within about 20% of your unit.
4. Work out each sale's price per sq ft: the amount divided by the size in square metres, then divided by 10.7639.
5. Take the median. With fewer than about 30 sales, widen the dates or the area.
6. Compare. (Your price per sq ft minus the median) divided by the median gives the gap in per cent.
7. Check the project. The DLD's Project Status Enquiry service, on its website and in the Dubai REST app, shows a project's completion percentage and details (DLD).

The DLD's terms allow use of its website materials for personal, non-commercial use (DLD terms).

Where is the price check on a project page?

On each project page with a result, the Worth it? box beside the from price shows the check, with the number of sales and where they come from. It uses DLD sales through 9 November 2026. Further down, the Is the price fair? section shows the spread of those sales as a chart.

It marks where the from price sits and lists the sales closest in size. To find projects by result, search projects that check below similar sales, or sort all projects by price check.

If a unit you are offered is priced well away from the sales on its page, ask the developer or the broker why before you pay.

Frequently asked questions

Does "below similar sales" mean the project is a bargain?

No. The check uses the from price, which is for the cheapest unit. The median covers units on every floor and with every view. Ask for the price of the unit you want and check that one.

Why does a project say "check the from price"?

Its from price per sq ft is above every similar sale in the project, or more than 25% above their median. That often means the listed price or size is wrong. Ask the developer to confirm both.

Why do some new launches have no result?

A brand-new project has no DLD sales of its own. If its master community and DLD area also have fewer than 30 similar off-plan sales in 12 months, there is not enough data, so we show no figure.

How often do the results change?

Each check uses the DLD sales copy the site holds. The results shown here use sales through 9 November 2026. A result can move from below to above when new sales are registered.

Sources

• Dubai Land Department, Open Data, real estate transactions (Registration type: Ready / Off Plan), checked 14 November 2026: dubailand.gov.ae
• Dubai Land Department, Project Status Enquiry service, checked 14 November 2026: dubailand.gov.ae
• Dubai Land Department, terms and conditions, checked 14 November 2026: dubailand.gov.ae
• Bayut H1 2026 off-plan report, published on Zawya, 2026, checked 14 November 2026: zawya.com
• The National, Dubai home sales in the third quarter (S&P quote), 7 October 2026, checked 14 November 2026: thenationalnews.com
• Our price check on the 988 projects published on this site, using DLD off-plan sales in the 12 or 24 months to 9 November 2026 (checked 12 November 2026)
• Our analysis of DLD sales, off-plan against ready price per sq ft by DLD district, 12 months to 30 September 2026 (districts with at least 50 sales of each kind)